Brookings Institute: How Will Congress Approach US-China Relations?
Reece Breaux, OAS President - 2/24/25
Image Source: Asia Society
In his first presidency, Donald Trump compelled the United States strategic community to recognize that China is the most significant threat to US security and prosperity. His efforts eventually resulted in a lasting consensus about China spanning both the legislative and executive branches.
The 118th Congress established the Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party, institutionalizing this new consensus into a legislative body that spearheaded China-related legislation. The 119th Congress reestablished the China Select Committee, ensuring Congressional focus on the most powerful adversary the United States has ever faced.
On February 25, the Brookings Institution will host a conversation between China Select Chairman John Moolenaar (R-MI) and Ranking Member Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) on China-related Congressional priorities. Brookings scholars Ryan Hass and Patricia Kim will moderate the event. Rep. Moolenaar and Rep. Krishnamoorthi retain their positions on China Select from the 118th Congress, positioning them well to discuss how the House of Representatives views the China challenge, where China fits in the House’s priorities, and how China Select defines victory, if it does at all.
This event will provide the public a crucial window into Congress’ China-related legislative agenda. It comes at a pivotal time for observers, with Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s recent comments in Germany suggesting that the United States will accelerate Barack Obama’s “pivot to Asia,” potentially at Europe’s expense.
It also comes amid fears that President Trump will seek a grand bargain with Chinese President Xi Jinping over Taiwan and the South China Sea, perhaps in exchange for cooperation on fentanyl, Beijing’s retreat from the Americas, and manufacturing investment in the US.
It is important for the public to understand why such a bargain faces widespread bipartisan opposition in Congress. Simply, China seeks to displace US power and lead an international order on terms benefitting Beijing’s interests and disadvantageous to those of Washington. Should this hypothetical grand bargain come to pass, Washington would be boxed out of the world’s most dynamic economic region and the center for 21st century geopolitics, playing into Beijing’s malign intentions.
China is driven by ideology to supplant and marginalize the United States, meaning that it will consolidate its gains from such a deal to oppress Washington from a position of strength. With Taiwan and the South China Sea under its control, and with the US having significantly retrenched from the region, China could intimidate regional American allies into distancing themselves from Washington and condition access to trade and foreign investment on accepting Chinese political priorities.
Indeed, China identifies the US as the main actor against which Beijing must “struggle” to achieve certain international conditions needed to realize the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by 2049. Beijing believes Washington is working to spread liberalism, undermine the Chinese Communist Party, and leverage other countries to “contain” China. Beijing also believes that the last 200 years of Western hegemony is a historical aberration and that American’ power relative to China is inexorably declining.
In other words, China believes the shoe is almost on the other foot, and it intends to kick the United States. Agreeing to this hypothetical grand bargain would thus be tantamount to geopolitical suicide.
Much of Congress understands this. As does National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. And on February 25, Rep. Moolenaar and Rep. Krishnamoorthi are likely to make the case for continued engagement in the Indo-Pacific and outline a legislative agenda that would guide the executive branch toward this end. After all, anything less than consistent and comprehensive engagement will open a vacuum for Beijing to exploit.
Link to event here.